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For those unfamiliar with the show “Deal Or No Deal” it is essentially a game show hosted by Howie Mandel where the contestant chooses 1 out of 26 briefcases that contain various amounts of money from $0.01 to $1M.

Every round requires the contestant to open a given number of remaining cases.

At the end of each round, “The Banker,” will make an offer to buy the case the contestant initially chose.

The offer valuation is dependent on what dollar values are still in play on the board.

After a 10 year hiatus, the iconic show again graced American television December 2018 with the following episode that I am going to break down titled, “Happy Howie Days.”

In the relaunch of the show, the producers added a twist that was not in the original rendition, the option to counter the banker one time during the game.

There were two scenarios available if and when a contestant chose to make a counter offer:

• The banker could accept the counter offer and the game is over
• The banker could refuse the offer and the contestant would be forced to play the next round.

 

To make it a bit of fun, I am going to make this post a little interactive as well and hope you choose to participate (responses are anonymous).

 

Deal Or No Deal: “Happy Howie Days”

Dec 19, 2018

Contestant: Luis Green

Occupation: Sales Consultant from Jacksonville, Florida

Marital Status: Married with 2 children.

Family Present for support:  Mother (Luis was adopted), Brother, Wife

Case Selected: Number 10

Round 1:

Required to pick 6 cases before first Banker’s offer

Value of cases opened:

• $750
• $500k
• $75k
• $50k
• $1M
• $500

 

Cases Left ($): .01, 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 750, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, 25,000, 50,000, 75,000, 100,000, 200,000, 300,000, 400,000, 500,000, 750,000, 1,000,000

Offer From Banker: $12k

Family Support System:

• Mom: No Deal
• Brother: No Deal
• Wife: No Deal

 

My thoughts:

Ouch!

This was indeed not an auspicious start to the game.

Knocking off the $1M case right off the bat automatically means that every banker’s offer will be much lower each round than if it had remained in play.

Revealing the $500k briefcase also took out a big bargaining chip for Luis.

In this situation I would have played on and refused the offer.

Luis’s Decision: No Deal

Round 2:

Required to pick 5 cases before first Banker’s offer

Value of cases opened:

• $25k
• $10k
• $25
• $1k
• $50

 

Cases Left ($): .01, 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 750, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, 25,000, 50,000, 75,000, 100,000, 200,000, 300,000, 400,000, 500,000, 750,000, 1,000,000

Offer From Banker: $28k

Family Support System:

• Mom: No Deal
• Brother: No Deal
• Wife: No Deal

 

My Thoughts:

A decent round to have survived in my opinion even though Luis continued to have more values from the right side of the board (the big money side) revealed rather than the desirable left side.

I would refuse the Banker’s offer and continue the game.

Luis’s Decision: No Deal

Round 3:

Required to pick 4 cases before first Banker’s offer

Value of cases opened:

• $300
• $400k
• $1
• $5k

 

Cases Left ($): .01, 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 750, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, 25,000, 50,000, 75,000, 100,000, 200,000, 300,000, 400,000, 500,000, 750,000, 1,000,000

Offer From Banker: $44k

Family Support System:

• Mom: No Deal
• Brother: No Deal
• Wife: No Deal

 

My Thoughts:

Another tough round for Luis as the $400k briefcase was taken out of play.

Although the Banker’s offer is now starting to get into the decent levels for a game show, I would have pressed on as the odds of revealing lower value briefcases in the next round were in my favor.

Luis’s Decision: No Deal

Round 4:

Required to pick 3 cases before first Banker’s offer

Value of cases opened:

• $100k
• $0.01
• $300k

 

Cases Left ($): .01, 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 750, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, 25,000, 50,000, 75,000, 100,000, 200,000, 300,000, 400,000, 500,000, 750,000, 1,000,000

Offer From Banker: $55k

Family Support System:

• Mom: No Deal
• Brother: No Deal
• Wife: No Deal

 

My Thoughts:

Ouch!

Not good.  Not good.

Luis managed to knock out 2 high value briefcases despite the many low value briefcases remaining.

Despite that fact, the Banker’s offer surprisingly went up, buoyed by the $750k briefcase in play.

The offer is now approaching the mean annual household income and, although not a life-altering amount, could likely wipe out an average family’s entire debt, and set them up for later financial success.

This is where I would really start weighing the options to accept the offer or at least counter.

If I have another bad round and knock off the $750k briefcase or worse, knock out both remaining 6 figure cases, the previous 5 figure Banker’s offers will plummet into the 2-3 figure range.

In the end I would press on as this is a rare opportunity to be on a game show and the fact that I still have the odds in my favor as the majority of remaining briefcases would likely contain low value amounts.

Luis’s Decision: No Deal

Round 5:

Required to pick 2 cases before first Banker’s offer

Value of cases opened:

• $100
• $400

 

Cases Left ($): .01, 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 750, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, 25,000, 50,000, 75,000, 100,000, 200,000, 300,000, 400,000, 500,000, 750,000, 1,000,000

Offer From Banker: $102k

Family Support System:

• Mom: No Deal
• Brother: No Deal
• Wife: No Deal

 

My Thoughts:

That is more like it!

Keeping both of the remaining 6 value briefcases was huge and because I survived this round, the Banker’s current 6 figure offer has now made the game decisions far more interesting.

Starting with the next round I am only required to pick 1 briefcase so the possibility of eliminating both 6 figure amounts is now gone.

Because of this, I think I would roll the dice one more time and hope that no matter what the $750k briefcase would remain in play.

Luis’s Decision: No Deal

Round 6:

Required to pick 1 case before first Banker’s offer

Value of case opened:

• $200

 

Cases Left ($): .01, 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 750, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, 25,000, 50,000, 75,000, 100,000, 200,000, 300,000, 400,000, 500,000, 750,000, 1,000,000

Offer From Banker: $140k

Family Support System:

• Mom: No Deal
• Brother: No Deal
• Wife: No Deal

 

My Thoughts:

The tide is starting to turn as another low value briefcase is removed from play.

The offer is of such a substantial amount that I am 50-50 on this next decision.

Again, because I only am required to pick one briefcase, I can not eliminate both of the high value targets on the next round.

Because of this, I think I would press my luck one more time.

Luis’s Decision: No Deal

Round 7:

Required to pick 1 case before first Banker’s offer

Value of case opened:

• $200k

 

Cases Left ($): .01, 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 750, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, 25,000, 50,000, 75,000, 100,000, 200,000, 300,000, 400,000, 500,000, 750,000, 1,000,000

Offer From Banker: $129k

Family Support System:

• Mom: Counter
• Brother: Counter
• Wife:  Did not indicate

 

My Thoughts:

Damn!

There goes my safety net.

The offer predictably went down but still remains substantial.

I feel that any contestant who has an offer that dropped is more likely to press on in a desperate attempt to try and at least get back to the highest offer level.

This can be a dangerous strategy to implement.

I personally would choose this time to accept the Banker’s offer (and not even risk being forced to play another round with an unaccepted counter offer) as there is only one high value briefcase remaining.

If I happened to reveal the $750k briefcase in the next round, the maximum amount I would win would be $75 (and the banker’s offers would only be a fraction of that).

Luis’s Decision: No Deal

Round 8:

Required to pick 1 case before first Banker’s offer

Value of case opened:

• $10

 

Cases Left ($): .01, 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 750, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, 25,000, 50,000, 75,000, 100,000, 200,000, 300,000, 400,000, 500,000, 750,000, 1,000,000

Offer From Banker: $217k

Family Support System:

• Mom: Deal
• Brother: Counter offer
• Wife: No deal

 

My Thoughts:

An unbelievable round and Luis was rewarded accordingly for taking a major risk.

This amount of money would set Luis up for a very bright financial future if used appropriately.

It is this point in the game that in my mind my mentality switched from rooting for Luis to now rooting against him for being so cavalier with this large amount of money.

This is greed, pure and simple.

If, for some reason, I happened to have had a momentary lapse in judgement in the previous round, this would definitely be the round I bow out of and accept the offer.

Luis’s Decision: No Deal

Round 9:

Required to pick 1 case before first Banker’s offer

Value of case opened:

• $75

 

Cases Left ($): .01, 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100, 200, 300, 400, 500, 750, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000, 25,000, 50,000, 75,000, 100,000, 200,000, 300,000, 400,000, 500,000, 750,000, 1,000,000

Offer From Banker: $333k

Family Support System:

• Mom: Deal
• Brother: Deal
• Wife: Counter

 

My Thoughts:

The incredible risk that Luis took, essentially making a $217k gamble, unbelievably paid off once more.

From the awful start of the game, Luis has masterfully run the board to put him in this current situation with 1/3 of a million dollar potential windfall.

Surely anyone in his or her right mind would not make a $333k gamble with a 50/50 chance of coming away with only $5.

Luis’s Decision: No Deal

My Thoughts Part II:

I am absolutely FLOORED that anyone could be so foolish as to gamble $333k on a single outcome where you have just as much chance as “winning” $5 as you have of coming away with $750k.

If Howie had brought out a wheelbarrow full of $100 dollar bills totaling $333k, I wonder if Luis would have been so reckless in his decision making process when he can actually see what was at stake rather than some theoretical number.

I find that Las Vegas casinos employ a similar tactic where they make you trade in dollars for chips so that it encourages you to gamble more.

A stack of bills at risk has much more emotional attachment (and would cause the gambler to hesitate more) than an equivalent value of chips.

 

 

 

So what happened?!?!?!??

I think it is far better to witness it the way it was meant to be rather than on text, so check out the stunning conclusion here.

 

 

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